Winning percentages

Summer 2001 I got the GoGoD Database CD ROM from John Fairbairn and T. Mark Hall. There are nearly 12,000 games in the database. With the tools that John wrote, I gathered some statistics about Cho's opening play. At the time I did this, there were 1154 games by Cho in the database (and in mine, I send John the Cho games I have found). I compared them with all the games from 1966 and later. I didn't differentiate for the different komi (note that there are some 80 Oteai non komi games by Cho).

Cho with Black Cho with White Database games (from 1966)
% win N % win N % B win N
Any pattern (all games) 63.5% 575 59.6% 579 53.2% 8196
Opening with Hoshi 60.8% 319 58.9% 360 53.7% 5368
  Ni ren sei (including san ren sei) 57.1% 107 59.3% 113 54,5% 1469
  San ren sei 51.4% 37 69.1% 55 50.1% 437
  Low Chinese 70.2% 47 69.6% 23 52,2% 408
  High Chinese 76.5% 17 81.8% 22 55.9% 340
Opening with Komoku 68.7% 217 61.0% 210 52.4% 2560
Any low shimari (first five moves) 65.2% 141 58,9% 175 51.9% 1785
  Low shimari + komoku parallel 63.5% 52 58.3% 36 54.3% 488
  Low shimari + hoshi parallel 53.8% 13 54.3% 46 50.5% 479
  Low shimari + sansan parallel 83.3% 6 50.0% 2 51.0% 49
Shusaku 1-3-5 78,9% 19 63.6% 11 58.1% 203
Variant 1-3-5 (5 on Hoshi) 90.9% 11 None 0 60.0% 70
Opening with sansan 58.6% 29 100% 5 50.5% 105
Sansan on move 1 or 3 (or both) 61.8% 34 86.7% 14 -//- -//-

Percentages and counts include rotations and mirror images of the (standard) opening pattern. I think these figures are quite interesting, but please draw your own conclusions.

Where does Cho play the second move with white?

A couple of years ago I already noticed that Cho plays his second move more often in the adjacent corner than in the diagonally opposite corner. Thanks again to the database I could now actually count this, and compare it to the overall pattern. The results are really surprising. Against hoshi Cho has played 76% in the adjacent corner, the over-all average is 56.4%. Against komoku Cho has played 83.3% of his second move in the adjacent corner, the over-all average is 67.4%.

Now what does that mean? It probably means that stronger players would welcome a diagonal fuseki, which might be a little bit too slow for black with 5.5 komi. As an example, take all the games in the database [from 1966], where black plays a low chinese fuseki and white opposes with two hoshi's. White wins exactly 50% (of 102 games) when he plays the second move in the adjacent corner, and only 45.7% (of 116 games) when move 2 is in the diagonally opposite corner. There is only one possible conclusion: the players that played in the adjacent corner were the stronger players!

Note: this has not been updated for three years, and some of these figures have changed considerably. The GoGoD CD has more than doubled its amount of games. It would be interesting to do this again, probably with the help of Kombilo.


Stories & Reports



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